In my continuing post on how gendercide in Asia (specifically, China and India) will impact US interests and security:
To review: Many more boys than is usual in Nature have been born in the two countries named above for several years, and the preference for male offspring (fueled by sex-specific abortion of female fetuses) continues. There is absolutely no sign of it abating. Indeed, in certain cities of Northern India, birthrates of baby boys are higher than they have ever been. The Asian preference for boys is exacerbated by China’s one-child policy – in India, simple extended-family preference (and the resultant pressure on pregnant women to give birth to boys) is what drives sex-specific abortion. The reduction in the percentage of girls born in both nations is the result of three major factors: easy access to ultrasound imaging in early pregnancy; the availability of sex-specific abortion; and the reluctance of authorities to prosecute what has already been deemed a crime, at least in India: aborting due to sex of the fetus.
In my last post, I detailed some of the changes likely to occur in the two countries beginning in 2020, with millions of frustrated young men who cannot find wives and establish stabilizing families in societies where family is regarded as of greater importance than in the West. The changes include increased violence; kidnapping of young women; buying wives; sharing wives, with or without financial compensation to the first husband; forcing factories to hire only men; the seclusion of girls and women for their protection from predatory gangs; increased pressure on Western nations to award visas and immigration to women and girls, and then, as violence increases in both China and India, to families fleeing increasingly destabilized and dangerous societies.
I ran across a recent online article (sorry, I’ve lost the link!) in a Chinese newspaper claiming that the male/female ration had stabilized. The writer is clearly toeing the party line. It is in China’s interest to play down the enormous effects of the choice – past and present – for male offspring. If the population were to recognize the threat they have themselves built – a threat which might have been avoided by offering both stick and carrot: draconian measures against sex-selective abortion, and wide-ranging financial incentives for families with daughters – there would be a greater outcry, although, as we’ll see, there is little the state can do at this point absent wholesale murder.
Today, we’ll take a look at the potentially sweeping physical movement of millions of single young men, and its resultant effects.
As has been demonstrated (think Genghis Khan and his progeny), huge numbers of men can swing out of Asia to overturn established societies. Hit-and-run raids (such as the Vikings’) spread genes and some culture (Vikings often settled on land they’d attacked for years, consolidating their position), but do not conquer. Subjugation of a territory requires guile and planning; superior strength and numbers; military advantage; and enormous will and discipline.
In India, the major areas of high male births are all in the wealthier north. It can be expected that as these northern young men (many in the Punjab) seek work, wives and wealth, they will move into the southern Indian states, displacing local men. This movement will initially be individual, by gangs and family groups of brothers and cousins. However, it’s likely that by 2025 we will see massive numbers of Indian men swooping into the south of their country.
Culturally, however, Pakistan (despite being an Islamic state, in contrast to the northern Indian religious mix of Hindu/Muslim/Sikh) resembles northern India much more than southern India does. Pakistan was created only in 1947, with the independence of India from British rule, and its subsequent Partition. Some Indians recall Partition, and millions more remember pre-1947 stories handed down by grandparents. It would be reasonable to assume that Pakistan would be regarded as a plum to be picked by entering millions of Indian men, and that once into Pakistan, its narrow middle would be crossed. Afghanistan lies to its west. Next, Iran and the various former SSRs (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan).
To the east of India are Bangladesh and the eastern arm of India, which abuts Burma. From there lie Thailand and Laos, though in my estimation the competing Chinese millions would regard those lands as theirs – thus Indian men would be likely to stop with Burma.
And the Chinese millions of single men, in numbers that will dwarf India’s? Unlike India, where gendercide is most prevalent in the northern part of the country, China has experienced sex-selective abortion nearly everywhere. In all cities, in all highly-populated regions, boys greatly outnumber girls.
There are, however, places where Chinese men might flow even within the nation: the shallowly-populated west and northwest. Those would be the natural outlet for excess millions. As noted above, Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia) would be stepping stones south. Toward the east, Taiwan, of course. Then North Korea and South Korea, which would provide a launchpad toward Japan, with its rapidly aging population.
Pushing west, the Chinese are unlikely to stray much into the comparative emptiness of Kazakhstan. Much more likely is a push into Kyrgyzstan, with a push around or across the Caspian Sea – possibly joining forces with the hordes from India – into Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, and westward into Turkey.
From which they will have access to Europe.
Keep in mind, however, that not all travel will be by automobile, truck or foot. Due to their size and potential for violence, these self-created armies from both countries will be perfectly able to commandeer trains, boats, perhaps even ships, and aircraft.
The word “armies” is used with intent. Currently, the size of the military in China and India is, respectively, 4.5 million and 4.7 million. It is impossible that the size of an official army (paid for by citizens) will grow to 20 million or more – unless we see a change so that all citizens above, say, fifteen years old, are automatically reckoned soldiers, such as in ancient Sparta. (It is possible that China and India might adopt the practice of countries such as Switzerland, with its armed citizen-soldiers – though gun suicide and family murder among Swiss citizen-soldiers is not rare.) To those who reassuringly point to military might to restrain millions of young men, then, the answer is that there will never be a strong-enough military. In either country, because neither can afford one.
In addition, the military of any nation is primarily made up of young men . . . exactly the cohort growing unrestrainedly in India and China. While young soldiers take vows of obedience, there have always been renegades, some quite infamous. Multiple those renegades to hundreds, then thousands, then tens of thousands. Also, many members of the military will not be rank-and-file soldiers, sailors and airmen, they will be additionally trained in the use of vehicles, ships and aircraft. They’ll know how to use explosives and communications, and how to avoid and disarm mines. Some will have achieved the rank of army captain or its equivalent.
It is not impossible that the official armies, navies and air forces supported by China and India will unravel into factions, their strength compromised by internal conflict. Where military men feel a pull toward their cohort of unattached males, and see an option beyond protecting the nation – an option that in their eyes guarantees adventure, risk, wealth, fame, land and women – what is to keep them from taking what they can (arms, ammunition, vehicles, know-how) and joining a new, self-created military? What force would exist to bar hundreds of thousands of young men from rushing toward such a group? Young men will be able to foment rebellion through e-mail, text and Twitter (plus upcoming technologies not yet invented), and guide large groups with the skill of someone organizing a contemporary protest march.
Who will that man – rather, men – be? Chances are good that the men who will lead millions have already been born, both in China and in India. Such men need to be in their late 20s, at least, in order to have made the connections and gained the experience necessary for effective leadership.
So far unmentioned have been the responses of other nations to the invasion by millions. Naturally, they will mount resistance. Traditional methods will work to slow the influx, though anything less than carpet-bombing, nuclear attack, or germ warfare will not arrest it – and those methods bring risk to the local population. But consider an unofficial military numbering 20-35 millions. Even if a million men are killed, or two million, or three, that is a small percentage to lose in order to gain access. Guerrilla warfare and resistance fighters will be harder for the masses of males to identify and to stop, especially because the type of organization needed to control and direct millions by its nature lacks flexibility. Once invasion is accomplished, therefore, the unofficial military will experience pricking small annoyances and losses due to brief, clandestine attacks. Such losses may slightly affect morale. They will certainly bring reprisals.
An unofficial military that depends on electronic information-gathering and messaging will need to have a large proportion of its officers – and many of its ordinary troops – supplied with the latest technology. Both China’s and India’s population are tech-savvy. They already use millions of cellphones, laptops, etc. Bringing this technology with them – including the thousands of talented men who will be able to adjust, change and design in the field – is a given. As they travel, they will need to keep in touch with masts or satellites. This is a potential frailty, since the government of a land facing invasion will logically decide to limit electronic access, even if that means their own forces will fight much as their ancestors did in the mid-20th century.
What the world faces, then, is chaos in Asia. This chaos will spread in all directions – though not far north, perhaps, since most Chinese and Indians have little experience with bitter cold.
Besides horrendous political and economic results (what nation can maintain production and business when soon its factories and capital cities will be taken over, and its own youth are fighting a stronger foe?), the movement of millions of young men carries drastic health consequences. Even assuming that all units of the hordes follow sanitary precautions with regard to food and human waste, the proximity of so many people leads to the easy incubation of viruses. With stress and (perhaps) limited water and food, opportunistic bacteria begin to flourish.
In addition, rape, which is horribly used in contemporary warfare, conveys both viruses and bacteria. Rape spreads disease to both the conquered and the conquerors. Strictly vigilant leaders – those intent on saving their troops for further battle – will ban rape, with severe consequences for rapists. Those leaders lacking foresight will allow it, with disastrous results.
Public health systems, over-burdened as they will be, will collapse under the challenge. In addition, the movements of medicines and even such mundane items as bandages and thermometers will be severely restricted by the crush of people trying to escape the hordes, and by the hordes themselves. If millions of young men use highways, rail routes, and rivers to move themselves, little else can be transported until they pass. Even minor illnesses are more likely to prove fatal as doctors and nurses disappear or find themselves prevented from working.
That is, if people even have food. Armies travel on their stomachs, and supply lines cannot be too long. We may see rapidly spreading famine, due not to inclement weather or plant disease or under-production, but caused by the locust effect of millions of young men on the loose.
Next: The hordes’ impact on US security